My friend @Eric_Howell (or as @PED7 calls him, “Toto”), of the @Followtonians podcast, posted some interesting numbers about the various football (soccer) confederations’ performances at the World Cup. Most remarkable was CONMEBOL’s 2.48 points per game, which is amazing. UEFA, on the other hand, were averaging a respectable (but underwhelming) 1.48.

Given that the various confederations receive different numbers of bids to the tournament, one would expect all those numbers to be equal on average, but there are a couple of complicating factors which you’d need to consider.

The first is sample size. There are only five South American teams playing, so with only 15 games between them (8 so far, I believe), there may be a ton of noise in that mean. We should look at these same numbers again after the first round is complete; my guessis that both UEFA and CONMEBOL will regress toward the mean.

The second issue is that many groups have multple European teams in them. This may cause deflation of the European figure. I’m not sure about this, but it would have to be looked at carefully.

In short, pronouncements of the quality of the confederations’ teams are premature. But CONMEBOL’s performance to this point has been remarkable.

I support the players’ desire for free agency and higher minimum salaries. But it’s unfortunate if the upper crust of MLS players is driving the movement to strike. It certainly seems that the most vocal player reps are among the league’s élite. They can afford a strike in two ways: a) they earn the most; b) they’re the most recognizable, least replaceable names. Developmental players, who consider themselves lucky to be playing in MLS? They can’t afford to be out for long. They will see their roster spots vanish.

UPDATE: This may be the case in many labor disagreements. It’s not something I’ve ever thought about.

At the time of the MLS expansion draft in December, I created a Twitter list (http://bit.ly/unionistas) that hopes to include the various players, coaches and execs that are gettin’ paid, gettin’ paid by Philadelphia Union. How do the various twitter streams stack up? Ranked best to worst, but worst is not really terrible. There are much worse streams in Philly sports (step right up, DeSean Jackson).

1. @Union2010 - The official front office feed. Updated frequently, often has breaking news. Maybe a step ahead of your email account. If you’re not a season ticket holder, this is the best way to get information on the Union.
2. @Tom_Veit - Tom Veit. The team president brings his loquacious personality to Twitter. You may well get heads up on upcoming announcements, such as when Veit hinted at the team’s agreement with 6 ABC before it was announced.
3. @bbknighton - Brad Knighton. Personable, looks to connect with fans. Shows the most potential for amusing his followers, and hopefully can give some insight into his upcoming training camp battle with Chris Seitz and Brian Perk.
4. @dannymwanga - Danny Mwanga. Danny got on to Twitter only after the draft, but he’s already established himself as among the most reliable folks on the team.
5. @speedsalinas11 - Shea Salinas. Hasn’t tweeted in a while, but seems excited about coming to Philly. Apparently unaware that he can tweet from his phone.
6. @amobisays - Amobi Okugo. Just an occasional tweeter, but keeps his followers updated on where he is and what he’s doing. Needs some more pop!
7. @perk89 - Brian Perk. Seems personable. I have no idea if he’s from southern California, but he looks and plays the part in his infrequent tweets. Seems stoked.
8. @nalu10 - Kyle Nakazawa. Still talking about midterms at UCLA (i.e. has not posted since October). I wonder if he finished his degree.
9. @JordanCHarvey - Jordan Harvey. Jordan’s feed is protected. I haven’t had a look.

Looking forward to seeing how these folks develop their direct line of communication with their fans. If you know of other Union personnel who are on twitter, please drop me a line at @rolando.

A year ago, Everton finished fifth in the Premiership and made it to the FA Cup final. This year, they have stayed in the Europa League, but have been wretched for the first half of the Premier League season, and on Saturday were eliminated from the FA Cup. Nevertheless, with the return of Mikel Arteta from injury, the Everton roster looks far better than it did at the end of last season, when Arteta and Phil Jagielka went out with long term injuries.

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Visualizing my Premiership projection. If I were smart or could suck in data more efficiently, I might make something of this, but instead I’ll continue to overcomplicate the league table by putting it in two dimensions.

Starting from the top right, you find the front runners in the Premier League: Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester Utd. The next group of four seem nearly certain to seal up the rest of the English league’s European places: Tottenham, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Liverpool. Then come the hopeful monsters: Fulham and Birmingham City. The next group of three is Everton, Sunderland and Stoke City. After that, it’s a mess.

What my Premiership projector says after Boxing Day. Yes, United is/are only two points behind Chelsea, but Arsenal has/have a game in hand and their goal differential is off the cheese.

Right now, it looks like there’s a top three separated by six points, followed by four more, separated by seven. After that, Birmingham and Fulham are looking strong. Then there’s a muddle. Hello, Everton.

Yes, this is almost exactly what the current table says, on a points-per-game basis. Goal differential and points are so closely correlated that this analysis can’t tell us much. Right now, the only meaningful thing it predicts is that West Ham will survive.

Projected points in parentheses:

1: Chelsea (84)
2: Arsenal (82)
3: Man Utd (78)

4: Spurs (71)
5: Man City (67)
6: Villa (65)
7: Liverpool (64)

8: Birmingham (58)
9: Fulham (56)

10: Sunderland (46)
11: Everton (45)
12: Stoke (43)
13: Bolton (40)
14: Blackburn (39)
15: West Ham (38)
16: Burnley (36)
16: Wigan (36)

18: Wolves (35)
19: Portsmouth (34)
20: Hull (32)

I use goal differential to predict the final premiership table. I like to think it’s simple but awesome. It’s definitely the former; probably not the latter.

It just regresses points on goal differential and adds the projected points over the remaining games to the points the given club has already earned.

Right now, I have Chelsea winning the league by a cool six points (on 85), followed by Arsenal (79) and Manchester United (76), with Villa and Spurs locked on the final Champions League spot at 71. Everton’s goal differential has been far better than the other teams at the bottom of the table and I think this bodes well for the new year: I have them finishing 12th, on 42 points.

That said, 42 points is not far from the drop zone: I have nine teams within three points of 18th position (though on the basis of goal differential, Hull looks doomed).