My friend @Eric_Howell (or as @PED7 calls him, “Toto”), of the @Followtonians podcast, posted some interesting numbers about the various football (soccer) confederations’ performances at the World Cup. Most remarkable was CONMEBOL’s 2.48 points per game, which is amazing. UEFA, on the other hand, were averaging a respectable (but underwhelming) 1.48.

Given that the various confederations receive different numbers of bids to the tournament, one would expect all those numbers to be equal on average, but there are a couple of complicating factors which you’d need to consider.

The first is sample size. There are only five South American teams playing, so with only 15 games between them (8 so far, I believe), there may be a ton of noise in that mean. We should look at these same numbers again after the first round is complete; my guessis that both UEFA and CONMEBOL will regress toward the mean.

The second issue is that many groups have multple European teams in them. This may cause deflation of the European figure. I’m not sure about this, but it would have to be looked at carefully.

In short, pronouncements of the quality of the confederations’ teams are premature. But CONMEBOL’s performance to this point has been remarkable.

A year ago, Everton finished fifth in the Premiership and made it to the FA Cup final. This year, they have stayed in the Europa League, but have been wretched for the first half of the Premier League season, and on Saturday were eliminated from the FA Cup. Nevertheless, with the return of Mikel Arteta from injury, the Everton roster looks far better than it did at the end of last season, when Arteta and Phil Jagielka went out with long term injuries.

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Visualizing my Premiership projection. If I were smart or could suck in data more efficiently, I might make something of this, but instead I’ll continue to overcomplicate the league table by putting it in two dimensions.

Starting from the top right, you find the front runners in the Premier League: Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester Utd. The next group of four seem nearly certain to seal up the rest of the English league’s European places: Tottenham, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Liverpool. Then come the hopeful monsters: Fulham and Birmingham City. The next group of three is Everton, Sunderland and Stoke City. After that, it’s a mess.

What my Premiership projector says after Boxing Day. Yes, United is/are only two points behind Chelsea, but Arsenal has/have a game in hand and their goal differential is off the cheese.

Right now, it looks like there’s a top three separated by six points, followed by four more, separated by seven. After that, Birmingham and Fulham are looking strong. Then there’s a muddle. Hello, Everton.

Yes, this is almost exactly what the current table says, on a points-per-game basis. Goal differential and points are so closely correlated that this analysis can’t tell us much. Right now, the only meaningful thing it predicts is that West Ham will survive.

Projected points in parentheses:

1: Chelsea (84)
2: Arsenal (82)
3: Man Utd (78)

4: Spurs (71)
5: Man City (67)
6: Villa (65)
7: Liverpool (64)

8: Birmingham (58)
9: Fulham (56)

10: Sunderland (46)
11: Everton (45)
12: Stoke (43)
13: Bolton (40)
14: Blackburn (39)
15: West Ham (38)
16: Burnley (36)
16: Wigan (36)

18: Wolves (35)
19: Portsmouth (34)
20: Hull (32)